My ~20% p(doom) — full evidence index

← Unified futures forecast · Futures evidence index · Emergent numbers · Simulator · 中文索引

Every load-bearing probability has Claim · Why · Evidence · Analogue · Would update if · Conf. Values port into ai-futures-sim as config/events.yaml p_cumulative fields.

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Start here

#	Page	What
1	Emergent numbers	~17/13/65/5 regions + key event marginals
2	Main post Appendix G	How to estimate & critique
3	Nodes below	Full evidence per P

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Synthesis layer

Page	Content
Emergent numbers	Sim regions & reproduce commands
Simulator	Joint MC engine + calibration scripts
Correlation A–H · 中文	Joint movement; encoded in event preconditions
Causal edges E1–E10 · 中文	Directed updates when editing YAML
Cross-node spine · 中文	Hybrid time, C0–C10

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Twelve nodes

Node	Topic	Key P’s	Evidence
1	Agent labor	No pause 88%	EN · 中文
2	CBRN / bio	BMIA 40%; Tier 3 before screening 22%	EN · 中文
3	Weight theft	Race post-theft 20%	EN · 中文
4	Whistleblower	Modal oversight 58%	EN · 中文
5	Open weights	No federal ban 88%	EN · 中文
6	GAAIA	Preemption weakens SB53 35%	EN · 中文
7	Compute / cloud	Triopoly 82%	EN · 中文
8	Cyber / CI	2027–29 tail	EN · 中文
9	Multilateral	Korea 28%; EU GPAI 14%	EN · 中文
10	Hidden near-miss	Stays hidden 55%	EN · 中文
11	Corp governance	Halt | crisis 12%	EN · 中文
12	RSI locus	Cloud first 55%	EN · 中文
+	Physical AI	Embodied / energy caps	EN · 中文