← Evidence index · Main forecast
Updated 2026-07-08. Headline regions are emergent from ai_futures_sim.
Emergent regions (seed sweep, 400 runs × 3 seeds)
| Region | Seed 42 | Seed 123 | Seed 456 | Round headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doom | 17.8% | 17.3% | 14.3% | ~17% |
| Utopia | 11.3% | 15.0% | 12.0% | ~13% |
| Friction | 64.0% | 64.5% | 67.8% | ~65% |
| Severe | 7.0% | 3.3% | 6.0% | ~5% |
Reproduce: ai-futures-sim → python scripts/seed_sweep.py
Top terminals (n=600, seed=42)
| Terminal | Share |
|---|---|
friction_modal | ~69% |
friction_governance_paralysis | ~9% |
utopia_golden_age | ~9% |
severe_cyber_cascade | ~6% |
doom_extinction_misalign | ~1.8% |
doom_extinction_bio | ~0.8% |
On full-spine paths, doom_whimper at horizon ≈ 15%.
Key event marginals (n=600, seed=42)
| Event | P |
|---|---|
ev_no_pause_2028 | 88% |
ev_us_paralysis_s2 | 56% |
ev_bmia_pass | 41% |
ev_china_cdz_mobilization | 65% |
Source: outputs/runs/calibration_summary.json, path_frequency.json (generate via commands above).
Spine calibration targets
| Conditional | Target | Typical emergent (n=600) |
|---|---|---|
| P(c5 | c2) | ~77% | ~77% |
| Full spine c1→c9 | — | ~89% |