← Evidence index · 中文 · Main post
Each section: Claim · Why · Evidence · Analogue · Would update if · Conf (H/M/L).
Parent: node10 disclosure gap · Shared Ci spine
Supersedes: crosscut secondary cruxes §5
Correlates: Node 2 (Trigger E, TAIL-B), Node 4 (E3/E4), Node 6 (SB53 vs GAAIA), Cluster H
Purpose: Claim | Why | Evidence | Analogue | Would update if | Conf — for every Node 10 probability.
1. Node definition — hidden base rate is load-bearing
Claim: True rate of Tier-2+ bio, agent-finance, and alignment-eval near-misses exceeds public Trigger E rate by modal 3:1–8:1 through 2028; BMIA urgency and Cluster B punctuation are underpriced because policymakers see fewer punctuating events than reality.
Why: NDA, market stability, natsec classification, and “nothingburger” framing default to internal containment. Node 2 Trigger E rates are conditional on public disclosure, not incident occurrence. Node 10 quantifies the gap.
Evidence:
- node10 disclosure gap — definition, branches M10/T10-A/T10-B
- crosscut secondary cruxes §5 — promoted to full node 2026-07-04
- node2 §Trigger E — public rates 0.25–0.35 near-miss; P(no E) modal 0.40–0.50
- correlation matrix Cluster C — hidden near-miss ↔ Tier 3 before screening
Analogue: Aviation near-miss reporting (ASRS) — industry knew true rate >> public headlines for decades before mandatory reporting.
Would update if: BMIA mandates near-miss reporting with penalties and ≥2 documented public near-misses show no prior suppression gap.
Conf: M
2. Branch M10 — modal suppression P = 0.55
Claim: P(hidden:public near-miss ratio 3:1–8:1, internal containment default through 2028) = 0.55.
Why: Most incidents handled by IGSC members, lab Preparedness teams, or finance ops without NYT headline. Saunders/Kokotajlo arc shows costly public leak is rare; default = contain + optional managed E4 essay.
Evidence:
- Node 10 parent — branch table M10 0.55
- Node 4 §10 — P(E4 managed disclosure) = 0.37; E3 live incident 0.08
- (internal note) — anthropic shadow / suppressed concern pattern
Analogue: 2008 financial crisis — thousands of internal risk flags; few public pre-crisis punctuations.
Would update if: SB 53 + RAISE produce ≥3 public Tier-2 disclosures in 12 mo with audit trail showing timely reporting (not leak).
Conf: M
3. Branch T10-A — high suppression (>10:1) P = 0.30
Claim: P(hidden:public ratio >10:1 — public Trigger E systematically misleading for policy) = 0.30.
Why: Natsec capture tail (Node 6/N4 E4) + market stability incentives + Apollo/Sleeper Agents published as controlled science, not near-miss events. Bio IGSC catches may never reach CDC press release.
Evidence:
- correlation matrix Cluster C — “>10:1” tail explicit
- Node 4 §32 — labs preempt whistleblower with managed disclosure
- Crosscut §5 — “+4–7pp extinction” if this tail (bio + BMIA delay)
Analogue: Cold War nuclear Broken Arrow incidents — many classified, public count undercounted for decades.
Would update if: FOIA/SB 53 discovery of undisclosed IGSC Tier-2 intercept or frontier lab incident report predating public Trigger E by >12 mo.
Conf: L–M
4. Branch T10-B — transparency works (~1:1) P = 0.15
Claim: P(hidden:public ratio ≈1:1 — SB 53/RAISE + BMIA reporting norms bite) = 0.15.
Why: Encode path: state incident duties + synthesis recordkeeping create paper trail; NY RAISE 72h reporting; Anthropic SB 53 endorsement. Still minority — federal preemption fight (GAAIA) and confidential-to-regulator channels limit public salience.
Evidence:
- node2 §P=0.40 — public Tier-2 disclosure under RAISE/SB 53 by 2028
- https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-is-endorsing-sb-53
- https://legislation.nysenate.gov/pdf/bills/2025/a9449 — RAISE catastrophic-risk reporting
Analogue: SEC 8-K material event disclosure — eventually aligned private/public after enforcement culture.
Would update if: Mandatory near-miss reporting in BMIA signed and first-year compliance audit shows timely public or semi-public disclosure.
Conf: L–M
5. P = 0.55 — P(hidden:public ratio >3:1 | Tier 2 live)
Claim: Load-bearing P #1: P(true:hidden incidents exceed public Trigger E by >3:1 | Tier 2 bio/agent capability live) = 0.55 (range 0.45–0.65).
Why: Complement of T10-B (0.15) + partial T10-A mass; calibrated from Y2K/SolarWinds insider response without public catastrophe + Node 2 P(no Trigger E) modal 0.40–0.50 implies hidden mass if incidents occur.
Evidence:
- Node 10 top P’s table — point 0.55
- Node 2 §P=0.40–0.50 no Trigger E — not P(no near-miss)
- Crosscut §5 hidden multiplier P(≥1 hidden Tier-2 | Tier 2 live) 0.70–0.85
Analogue: Cyber breach dwell time — median 200+ days before public disclosure (industry surveys).
Would update if: Independent audit of IGSC + frontier lab logs (hypothetical) shows ratio <2:1.
Conf: M
6. P = 0.75 — ≥1 hidden Tier-2-class near-miss | Tier 2, 2027
Claim: P(at least one hidden Tier-2-class near-miss — bio screening catch, agent finance error, alignment eval near-catastrophe — occurs in 2027 while Tier 2 live) = 0.75 (range 0.65–0.85).
Why: Tier 2 capability already emerging (GeneBreaker, agent protocols); base rate of attempts + near-misses rises with capability; public Trigger E only 0.25–0.35 for documented near-miss → hidden conditional high.
Evidence:
- Node 10 load-bearing P #2
- (internal note) — Tier 2 window 2026-08 – 2027-06
- Node 2 §Trigger E near-miss 0.25–0.35 public — if P(occurrence) >> P(public), hidden 0.75 coherent
Analogue: Airline near-misses per flight-hour — rare headline, common in ASRS database.
Would update if: Zero IGSC intercepts and zero lab incident reports through 2027 despite Tier 2 red-team programs expanding.
Conf: L–M
7. P = 0.30 — public Trigger E | Tier 2 live
Claim: P(any public Node 2 Trigger E — FBI/CDC linkage, leaked red-team, documented screening near-miss — fires | Tier 2 live through 2027) = 0.30 (range 0.25–0.35).
Why: Union of Node 2 Trigger E branches not additive; near-miss highest single rate (0.25–0.35) but correlated with leak paths. Node 10 treats this as upper bound on public salience, not occurrence.
Evidence:
- node2 §Trigger E — FBI/CDC 0.15–0.25; leak 0.20–0.30; near-miss 0.25–0.35; no E 0.40–0.50
- Node 10 load-bearing P #3
Analogue: Whistleblower vs internal audit — minority of internal findings become policy punctuations.
Would update if: Any Trigger E fires 2026-H2 → revise conditional upward for remainder of horizon.
Conf: M
8. P = 0.55 — BMIA delay | high suppression tail
Claim: P(federal BMIA/signing delayed ≥12 mo beyond near-miss salience window | T10-A high-suppression path) = 0.55 (range 0.45–0.65).
Why: Without public punctuation, Kingdon problem stream stays weak for x-risk; insider/regulator salience tail (Node 2 Sep 2027+) requires leak or incident. Hidden near-misses do not open policy windows — Cluster C in correlation matrix.
Evidence:
- Node 10 load-bearing P #4
- Node 2 §TAIL-B — regulatory delay 0.15 given near-miss; higher if near-miss hidden
- Crosscut §3 epistemic/BMIA — P(BMIA) 0.45 load-bearing; delay channel
Analogue: Fukushima reporting delays — internal severity known before public evacuation orders.
Would update if: BMIA signed within 6 mo of undisclosed near-miss later revealed → suppression thesis weakened.
Conf: M
9. P = 0.28 — Tier 3 before screening | high suppression
Claim: P(Tier 3 bio misuse attempt before mandatory federal screening operational | high suppression tail) = 0.28 (range 0.20–0.38).
Why: Node 2 load-bearing P #3 — Tier 3 before screening 0.20 baseline; +8pp if policymakers underreact because hidden near-misses never punctuate. Correlates Cluster C ↑ with hidden rate.
Evidence:
- (internal note) — load-bearing P #3 Tier 3 before screening
- Node 2 §P(Tier 3 | Tier 2) — baseline paths
- Node 10 p(doom) link — bio tail 20% × P(ext|bio)=36%
Analogue: COVID early spread — local hospitals knew before CDC test kits scaled.
Would update if: BMIA signed + IGSC near-miss public → revise Tier 3-before-screening ↓ to <0.15.
Conf: L–M
10. P = 0.60 — agent finance near-miss hidden | occurs
Claim: P(agent-induced finance near-miss — e.g. erroneous large transfer, trading glitch — not classified as timeline Trigger E | such event occurs) = 0.60 (range 0.50–0.70).
Why: Lobstar Wilde (Feb 2026) was public but not mapped to Node Trigger E taxonomy; SEC/CFTC mandatory AI-agent disclosure immature; firms settle quietly to avoid market panic.
Evidence:
- (internal note) — Lobstar Wilde $250K–441K decimal error post-crash
- Node 10 load-bearing P #6
- Crosscut §5 — “extends Trigger E taxonomy beyond bio”
Analogue: Flash crash 2010 — regulatory action without lasting public “AI agent” narrative.
Would update if: SEC mandates real-time disclosure of agent-initiated transfers >$10M.
Conf: L–M
11. P = 0.35 — GAAIA preemption weakens SB 53 incident duty
Claim: P(GAAIA federal preemption materially weakens CA SB 53 / NY RAISE incident-reporting duties for frontier labs) = 0.35 (range 0.25–0.45).
Why: GAAIA 3-year preemption draft; Trump EO voluntary frame; industry lobbying $8.5M Q1 2026. Encode defensive war not guaranteed — Blackburn carve-outs help transparency bills, not necessarily incident public disclosure.
Evidence:
- node6 — GAAIA O1 preemption branch
- Node 1 §T2 — GAAIA preemption P=0.12 subset of broader anti-reg tail
- Node 10 load-bearing P #7
Analogue: HIPAA preemption fights — federal floor sometimes caps state public reporting.
Would update if: GAAIA passes with explicit preservation of SB 53/RAISE incident duties.
Conf: M
12. P = 0.25 — mandatory near-miss reporting by 2028
Claim: P(US mandatory near-miss reporting for frontier AI bio/agent incidents with enforceable penalties by 2028) = 0.25 (range 0.15–0.35).
Why: BMIA may include synthesis near-miss; AI eval near-miss not in BMIA text; RAISE/SB 53 cover catastrophic risk not all Tier-2; federal appetite narrow (screening yes, eval halt no).
Evidence:
- Node 10 load-bearing P #8
- Node 2 §BMIA — physical-layer focus
- Node 4 §RAISE — catastrophic-risk threshold, not all near-misses
Analogue: OSHA near-miss reporting — partial industries, incomplete compliance.
Would update if: BMIA markup adds explicit AI-assist near-miss reporting article with civil penalties.
Conf: L–M
13. Trigger E — FBI/CDC synthesis-AI linkage (public complement)
Claim: Node 2 P(FBI/CDC public linkage | Tier 2) = 0.15–0.25; Node 10 implies 0.75–0.85 that some investigation-quality linkage occurs internally if Tier 2 live — gap drives suppression thesis.
Why: Recordkeeping ↑ traceability; public attribution requires press strategy, criminal case, or leak. Hidden investigations may run without Trigger E.
Evidence:
- node2 §P=0.15–0.25 FBI/CDC Trigger E
- https://screendna.org/ — recordkeeping advocacy
- (internal note) §2.3
Analogue: 2001 anthrax — massive investigation, slow public AI-equivalent attribution.
Would update if: Mandatory recordkeeping + first flagged order within 12 mo → revise public rate to 0.25–0.35.
Conf: L–M
14. Trigger E — leaked red-team (NYT/Science)
Claim: Node 2 P(leaked frontier red-team CBRN findings in major media by 2027) = 0.20–0.30; P(same finding stays internal | exists) ≈ 0.65–0.75.
Why: Kokotajlo → Right to Warn precedent; RAISE paper trail; NDAs + reputational risk contain majority. Apollo/Sleeper published on lab terms — selection bias.
Evidence:
- Node 2 §P=0.20–0.30 leaked red-team
- (internal note) §3.1 — Kokotajlo / Right to Warn
- Node 4 §10 — E2 eval dump vs E4 managed disclosure
Analogue: Pentagon Papers — rare, structural when stakes × insider pool large.
Would update if: Major outlet publishes Tier-2 red-team leak 2026 → revise 2027 follow-on up.
Conf: L–M
15. Trigger E — documented public near-miss (screening intercept)
Claim: Highest public Trigger E single rate: P(documented near-miss where screening intercepts AI-designed sequence, publicized, by 2027) = 0.25–0.35.
Why: Near-misses more likely than successful misuse; providers may strategic publicize catches. Still < true intercept rate if suppression default.
Evidence:
- Node 2 §P=0.25–0.35 near-miss Trigger E
- https://genesynthesisconsortium.org/ — IGSC v3.0
- Crosscut §5 — Y2K pattern: success looks like overreaction
Analogue: Y2K — fixes worked, narrative “crisis averted,” still drove spend.
Would update if: Zero IGSC catches reported through 2027 → revise down; BMIA mandates reporting → up.
Conf: L–M
16. Trigger E — no public E modal (complement)
Claim: P(no public Trigger E | Tier 2 live through 2027) = 0.40–0.50 — does not imply no near-misses occurred.
Why: Node 10 core insight: modal no public E compatible with high hidden rate. Node 2 complement is about salience, not safety.
Evidence:
- Node 2 §P=0.40–0.50 no Trigger E
- (internal note) — technocratic track default
- Node 10 branch M10 0.55
Analogue: GDPR passed on scandal buildup but many EU tech rules pass without headline crime.
Would update if: Any public Trigger E fires 2026 → drop conditional P(no E).
Conf: M
17. TAIL-B regulatory delay — hidden near-miss extends lag
Claim: Node 2 TAIL-B P(regulatory delay 12–18 mo after near-miss) = 0.15 public path; → 0.25–0.35 if near-miss hidden (no media punctuation).
Why: TAIL-B assumes near-miss opens window; hidden path skips window → BMIA/signing slips to second session or dies in committee.
Evidence:
- node2 §P=0.15 TAIL-B
- Crosscut §5 p(doom) — delays BMIA, ↑ Tier 3 before screening
- Node 2 Phase 2b epistemic extension — synthetic flood extends TAIL-B
Analogue: Post-Sandy Hook gun bills — salience without sustained window when media cycle moves.
Would update if: BMIA signed within 6 mo of public near-miss → TAIL-B overestimated for public path only.
Conf: M
18. Lobstar Wilde — agent finance near-miss taxonomy gap
Claim: Lobstar Wilde-class events are real near-misses but outside Node 2 bio Trigger E taxonomy — policy learns slowly unless new SEC/CFTC class created.
Why: Decimal error → $250K–441K erroneous transfer; public via crypto Twitter, not WSJ front page or Trigger E mapping. Expands Node 10 scope beyond bio.
Evidence:
- (internal note) — Lobstar Wilde Feb 2026
- Node 10 definition — “agent finance” explicit
- Crosscut §6 L4 finance locus — 0.10 first-tail
Analogue: Knight Capital 2012 — $440M loss, immediate reg attention; agent framing immature in 2026.
Would update if: Agent finance incident triggers mandatory disclosure rule — new Trigger E class.
Conf: M
19. Y2K / SolarWinds — insider response without public catastrophe
Claim: Y2K (fixes worked, low public harm) and SolarWinds 2020 (massive insider/regulator response, limited public protest) calibrate hidden:public ratio for contained near-misses.
Why: Success looks like overreaction; SolarWinds shows nation-state-scale incident can drive internal without Trigger E-class public bio salience.
Evidence:
- Crosscut §5 evidence list — Y2K / SolarWinds analogues
- (internal note) — suppressed concern
- Node 2 §Trigger E — near-miss generates mandate if public
Analogue: SolarWinds — CISA action before mass public panic.
Would update if: AI near-miss generates sustained >2 mo media without containment — analogue breaks.
Conf: M
20. E3 live incident vs E4 managed disclosure — Node 4 partition
Claim: Node 4 P(E3 live autonomous harm public) = 0.08; P(E4 suppressed/managed) = 0.37 — Node 10 generalizes E4 to bio/finance/eval near-misses never reaching E3 or Trigger E.
Why: GPT-4 TaskRabbit CAPTCHA lie (2023) — deception in prod, no pause. Anthropic RSI essay (2026-06) — E4 preempts whistleblower while training continues.
Evidence:
- node4 §9 E3, §10 E4, §32 managed disclosure
- (internal note) — expect pause, not commit
- Node 4 §31 — Leike: narrative without operational leverage
Analogue: Tobacco industry “we support regulation” — managed transparency.
Would update if: E3-class live harm forces public near-miss disclosure cascade.
Conf: H
21. SB 53 vs GAAIA — disclosure fight (Node 6 link)
Claim: P(public incident reporting survives GAAIA preemption fight) ≈ 0.65; P(reporting confidential-to-regulator-only, no public Trigger E) ≈ 0.35.
Why: Encode SB 53 signed; GAAIA threatens preemption; confidential reporting satisfies some regulators without media punctuation — worst for Node 10 (hidden from policy window).
Evidence:
- Node 6 — SB 53 vs GAAIA
- Node 2 §RAISE/SB 53 — confidential to NY DFS for some reports
- Node 10 P #7 — GAAIA weakens duties 0.35
Analogue: HIPAA breach notification — delayed public tiers by size.
Would update if: SB 53 enforcement includes public summary statistics of near-misses.
Conf: M
22. GPT-4 TaskRabbit — prod deception without policy pause
Claim: GPT-4 TaskRabbit CAPTCHA lie (2023) is proto-near-miss — prod deception, no Trigger E, no training halt — downward bound on P(public response | internal finding).
Why: Confirms capability incidents can occur without punctuating Cluster B; supports hidden:public gap even for observed behaviors kept small in media.
Evidence:
- Node 4 §9 E3 rationale — TaskRabbit cited
- Crosscut §5 evidence bullet
- (internal note) — early prod deception examples
Analogue: Tesla Autopilot incidents — some public, many settled/NHTSA confidential.
Would update if: Similar prod deception forces RSP hard stop (never observed 2023–26).
Conf: H
23. Apollo / Sleeper Agents — publication bias
Claim: Labs publish controlled scheming/backdoor results (Apollo 2024-12, Sleeper Agents 2024-01) — not leaks — creating selection bias toward manageable narratives; true near-miss rate ↑ vs published rate.
Why: Publication timing and framing lab-controlled; near-catastrophic eval failures more likely withheld. Feeds T10-A tail.
Evidence:
- Hubinger et al. Sleeper Agents (2024-01) — backdoors persist through RLHF
- Apollo scheming evals (2024-12)
- Crosscut §5 — “selection bias toward manageable narratives”
Analogue: Clinical trial publication bias — positive or manageable results overrepresented.
Would update if: Leaked eval shows materially worse results than published Apollo-class paper same quarter.
Conf: M
24. p(doom) — branch stitch (bio tail primary mover)
Claim: Node 10 moves bio tail weight and conditional P(ext|bio): M10 +2–4pp; T10-A +4–7pp; T10-B −2–3pp on extinction estimate.
Why: Bio branch 20% × P(ext|bio)=36% in my pdoom — hidden near-miss primary mover of both BMIA timing and Tier 3-before-screening.
Evidence:
- Node 10 parent — p(doom) link table
- (internal note) — branch model, load-bearing P #2–3
- Crosscut §5 — ranked #1 leverage on ~17% doom region (emergent sim) (+4–7pp wrong-way tail)
Analogue: Phase 4a stitch — do not multiply marginals (Cluster C).
Would update if: Full re-stitch with correlation_matrix Cluster C quantification.
Conf: L–M
25. Cluster C correlation — do not multiply
Claim: P(hidden near-miss) correlates ↑ with P(Tier 3 before screening), P(TAIL-B delay), P(BMIA fail epistemic tail) — joint tail ~3–5× product of marginals.
Why: Same mechanism: policy blindness to true risk rate. Node 10 makes explicit what correlation matrix listed as needs Phase 2 quantification.
Evidence:
- correlation matrix Cluster C
- Crosscut §8 correlation sketch — hidden near-miss → BMIA delay
- Node 2 + Node 10 joint read
Analogue: Correlated defaults in CDOs — joint tail risk.
Would update if: Public near-miss punctures through epistemic fog (Node 2 punctuation path 0.15) → Cluster C decouples.
Conf: M
26. NDA / market stability — Saunders arc
Claim: Saunders testimony + Right to Warn (2024-06) increased transparency lane but not near-miss disclosure rate — costly leak still rare; NDAs bind majority of insiders.
Why: Right to Warn = ability to warn, not incentive to leak near-misses that stay contained. Kokotajlo departure exception proves base rate.
Evidence:
- Node 4 §30 — Saunders / Right to Warn
- (internal note) §3.1 — Kokotajlo precedent
- Crosscut §5 — NDA/market stability bullet
Analogue: Wall Street whistleblower awards — few claims vs many violations.
Would update if: Wave of SB 53-protected anonymous near-miss reports to CA AG.
Conf: M
27. Falsifiers (master watchlist)
| Observation | Implication |
|---|---|
| FOIA/SB 53 undisclosed IGSC near-miss | T10-A ↑; ratio >10:1 |
| BMIA mandates near-miss reporting + compliance audit clean | T10-B ↑; ratio →1:1 |
| ≥2 public near-misses 2026–27, no suppression evidence | M10 ↓ to <0.40 |
| Agent finance SEC mandatory disclosure | L4 Trigger E class; hidden finance ↓ |
| Public Trigger E + BMIA within 6 mo | TAIL-B ↓; suppression less costly |
Conf: M
Related files
- node10 disclosure gap
- node2
- node4
- node6
- crosscut secondary cruxes §5 (superseded)
- main forecast
Update log
| Date | Change |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Initial — 27 evidenced sections from crosscut §5 + Node 2 Trigger E expansion |